Your 2026 Budget Plan is Missing One Key Thing
It’s the one thing nobody wants to think about: Recession.
In October 2025, Moody’s Analytics reported that 22 U.S. states are either in or near recession. Consumer pessimism is climbing. Inflation is lingering. Major sectors are cutting jobs. The federal shutdown continues. And yet, many companies are budgeting for business-as-usual.
That’s a mistake.
Recessions are disruptive, but they’re also clarifying. The most successful companies in history didn’t just survive downturns; they redefined themselves through them. As JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon put it: “A recession isn’t inherently a bad thing… It’s bad for America, it’s bad for people who are unemployed, but it’s usually an opportunity for JPMorgan.”
But action alone isn’t enough. It’s how companies communicate those actions—internally, externally, and strategically—that determines whether they succeed.
What the Best-Performing Businesses Do in a Downturn
Decades of research from Harvard Business Review, McKinsey, Richards College of Business, and others reveal seven traits shared by the companies that outperformed their peers during economic contractions. Every one of these traits is amplified or undermined by a communication strategy.
Here’s how thriving companies lead during recessions and how communication plays a make-or-break role in each.
- Frame Innovation as Progress, Not Panic
Recessions accelerate change. They force companies to reimagine offerings, modernize systems, and digitize customer experiences. A 2023 McKinsey study found that companies investing in innovation during downturns grew 10–15% faster than their peers post-recovery.
Communication Strategy: Frame innovation as a purposeful evolution, not a desperate pivot. When leaders use confident, forward-looking language, they rally employees, reassure partners, and attract investor confidence. - Restructure Talent with Transparency
Successful companies don’t default to mass layoffs. They reassess roles, retain high performers, and recruit talent from a newly competitive labor market. The focus is on strengthening, not shrinking, the team.
Communication Strategy: Honest, empathetic internal communication preserves culture during change. When teams understand the “why” and “what’s next,” they stay engaged and aligned.
- Stay Radically Customer-Centric
Customer needs shift fast in a downturn. The best companies don’t just guess: they listen, adapt, and offer real solutions such as bundled services, flexible payment terms, and enhanced support.
Communication Strategy: Your messages must reflect real understanding. Show customers that you hear their pain points—and that you’re acting to help them succeed.
- Be the Brand That Stays Visible
It’s tempting to cut marketing when cash gets tight. But history proves that brands that stay loud during recessions often emerge as market leaders. Ad space becomes cheaper. Competitor noise fades. Visibility multiplies.
Communication Strategy: Keep telling your story. Use consistent, high-impact messaging to reinforce trust, stability, and value.
- Communicate Financial Discipline Clearly
Resilient companies manage cash, limit debt, and build reserves. But it’s not just about the numbers—it’s about the confidence others place in your financial leadership.
Communication Strategy: Be transparent. Communicate your financial strategy with clarity to employees, investors, and customers. Confidence is contagious.
- Lead Tech Adoption with a Clear Narrative
Digital transformation is a recession accelerant. Whether it’s AI, automation, or operational redesign, companies that modernize thrive. But transformation only sticks when employees are on board.
Communication Strategy: Don’t just announce a tool, tell a story. Link technology to purpose, customer outcomes, and your future vision.
- Tell a Story of Strategic Flexibility
Thriving companies don’t rely on one customer type, revenue stream, or supplier. They diversify to build resilience and seize new market opportunities.
Communication Strategy: Share your adaptability. Communicate how you’re evolving to meet changing needs without losing sight of your core mission.
A Final Word: Don’t Just Act—Communicate
Recession doesn’t just test your business model; it tests your message. In moments of uncertainty, great communication becomes a company’s most strategic asset.
It builds trust. It aligns teams. It signals strength. So yes, build your recession plan. And build your communication strategy right alongside it.
At Tunheim, we help leaders turn moments of uncertainty into long-term advantage.
